Opinion: We can’t ignore the terror threat from Somalia — or the southern border

By Viktor Marsai

Terrorist groups continue to pose a major threat for America and its allies — even if U.S. policymakers have shifted most of their focus to Russia and China.

It’d be a grave mistake for Washington to ease the pressure on violent extremist organizations in remote terrorist hotbeds such as northeastern Somalia. Terrorists have already openly celebrated the possibility that the war in Ukraine will distract Western leaders — and enable these groups to repeat their deadly past successes. We can’t let that happen.

The American public’s frustration with “endless wars” is understandable. But terrorist groups, in Somalia and elsewhere, have not been defeated, and it does not seem that they will be in the near future. In fact, the rapidly deteriorating security situation in East Africa necessitated the redeployment of American troops by the Biden administration, provoking harsh criticism.

Although the Islamic State’s and Al-Qaeda’s branches have suffered serious setbacks in the last two decades, they still control hundreds of thousands of square miles and millions of people from the Lake Chad Basin across South-Central Somalia to Yemen and Afghanistan. They also have the capacity to launch attacks far from their original strongholds.

The target of the latest commando raid in Somalia, Bilal al-Sudani, offers a typical example of a high-level terrorist commander who maintained and facilitated global networks and operations.

Al-Sudani, who left al-Shabaab for the Islamic State, was a key figure in the organization’s Al-Karrar regional office, which serves as a coordination hub for all IS activity in East Africa. Al-Sudani also facilitated the connection between local branches and the Islamic State network beyond Africa.

The liquidation of al-Sudani significantly degrades Islamic State financial capacities, preventing them from launching new attacks — at least for a while. Supporting friendly local forces — for instance, by conducting airstrikes in Somalia on Jan. 23 — is a cost-effective way of countering violent extremists’ operations.

Increasing great power rivalries and the return of interstate wars are the realities of the current international system. But that doesn’t mean that we can forget about terrorists — mainly because they do not forget us.

Violent extremist organizations are closely following global events and trying to exploit them. Consider the ongoing border crisis. In fiscal 2022, Border Patrol caught 98 foreign nationals on the FBI’s terror watch list, obliterating the previous record of 15 in fiscal 2021. And this year will likely set another record — in just the past five months, Border Patrol has apprehended 53 suspected terrorists.

And that’s only the ones that agents caught. There have been 1.2 million known “got aways” — illegal aliens who’ve successfully crossed into the United States and evaded law enforcement — since the start of the Biden administration.

If the United States wants to avoid the possibility of a new terrorist attack on its soil, its leaders cannot neglect what’s brewing in Africa — or on its southern border, for that matter. The time of extended military engagements like the war in Afghanistan might have passed, but keeping the pressure on violent extremist organizations and conducting small-scale commando raids must continue.

Viktor Marsai, PhD, is the Director of the Budapest-based Migration Research Institute, the associate professor of University of Public Service and an Andrássy Fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies in Washington, D.C.